Forecasting Biomass Loss and Carbon Released to the Atmosphere as a Result of Habitat Conversion of Eastern Selous-Niassa TFCA

Terrestrial climate change predictions use various models that are based on atmospheric parameters combined with projected carbon emission scenarios. Increased levels of carbon emissions into the atmosphere are accelerated by human activities and are the main reason of climate change (CC). CC threatens networks of protected areas (PAs) and forced many species out of PAs. Unfenced PAs gives species opportunity to migrate from one PA to another or other unprotected areas to sustain their climatic niche. Many PAs in SADC countries including transfrontier conservation areas (TFCA) are unfenced; hence, connectivity of PAs uses corridors. However, many of these corridors are unprotected and advocacies adaptation of reserved fauna and flora under CC. This paper explains the less known amount of biomass loss and carbon released to the atmosphere as result of habitat conversion of eastern corridor of Selous – Niassa TFCA which connecting the two PAs of Tanzania and Mozambique. Specifically, the study predicts amount of biomass loss, amount of carbon released to the atmosphere and amount of conservation profit disposed as a result of habitat conversion from 2015 to 2035. Existing data on spatial and temporal changes in land use and land cover (LULC) of eastern corridor of Selous – Niassa TFCA from 1986 – 2016 was analysed and used to forecast LULC from 2015 to 2035 by using CA-Markov model. The forecasted LULC from 2015 to 2035 was analysed to get intended results. The results revealed that, an average amount of 29559.8 tons of biomass (above ground + below ground + deadwood) loss annually from 2015 to 2035. Consequently, average amount of 40217.2 tons of carbon (above ground + below ground + deadwood) released to the atmosphere annually from 2015 to 2035 equivalent to US$ 160868.6 per annum if REDD+ implemented. The study concludes that, there is a need to include virgin corridors into core PAs network or formulation of sustainable conservation strategies that will consider climatic niche of both flora and fauna without compromising livelihoods of corridor dwellers.


INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background information
Terrestrial climate change predictions use various models that are based on atmospheric parameters combined with projected carbon emission scenarios. However, uncertainty is associated with these predictions, and at least 16 different models are in use (Nature Conservancy, 2009; Malimbwi et al., 2016). These global models have high uncertainties as emission scenarios vary depending on future energy use choice of different communities; and those models are suitable in predicting changes in temperature rather than precipitation. These global models have advantage of being, in principle, applicable anywhere. However, due to great variation in climatic and edaphic factors, such models can yield large error locally. Thus, a model developed on data from a smaller region, will within that region give more accurate estimates (Malimbwi et al., 2016;Kulindwa et al., 2016;Lobora et al., 2017). Increased levels of carbon emissions into the atmosphere accelerated by human activities are the main reason of climate change. Terrestrial carbon sinks include soils, trees and other vegetation soaks up at least half of annual greenhouse gases emissions from fossil fuels resulting to slow down of climate -warming gases in our atmosphere (Kulindwa et al., 2016). Carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration is one of great role of forests and woodlands ecosystem, other roles include protection of watersheds, soil conservation, conservation of biodiversity, sustaining cultural values, climatic amelioration and eco-tourism. Despite all the valuable and invaluable goods and services provided by forests, there are high rates of deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (Malimbwiet al., 2016). For instance, Tanzania is among the developing country in East Africa where the aforementioned scenario accelerating deterioration of over 10,000 plant species, hundreds of which are nationally endemic. Among plant and animal species in Tanzania, 724 are identified as "Threatened" in the World Conservation Union (IUCN) Red List with 276 species classified as "Endangered" (IUCN, 2013). Some of these forests and woodlands are within protected areas (PAs) rich of biodiversity (fauna and flora) of different categories and others unprotected areas termed as public good (general land). These scenarios necessitate development of allometric models for measuring biomass and volume of different forest and woodland species of Tanzania (URT, 2015). All PAs in Tanzania are unfenced. Wildlife uses that opportunity to migrate from one PA to another or other areas for climate change adaptation. One of the unprotected areas for adaptation are wildlife/biodiversity corridors which connect two or more PAs within the country or transfrontier conservation areas (TFCA). Connectivity of PAs through corridors advocacy adaptation of reserved fauna and flora under climate change. The protection of corridor biodiversity relies on the ability to assess hot spots, quantify and predict spatial and temporal trends of key species, maintain a natural disturbance regime, and limit harmful human activities (Stohlgren et al., 1999).

Problem statement
Classification and management of networks of protected areas (PA) is pre-requisite for sustainable biodiversity conservation. However, these networks are commonly considered static because areas that have been classified as PAs almost never declassified (Mascia and Pailler, 2011;Malimbwi et al., 2016). Habitat loss, fragmentation, overhunting and resource depletion are among drivers of populations decline which PAs safeguarding species from those shocks(UNEP 1992); consequently, climate change forced many species out of PAs (Kulindwa et al, 2016; Lobora et al., 2017). Certainly, models project that several PAs will lose suitable habitats for species of high conservation concern ( Hole et al.  Lobora et al., 2017). This scenario faces many transfrontier conservation areas (TFCAs) in Africa including Selous -Niassa TFCA. Selous -Niassa TFCA is connected by the corridor between Selous Game Reserve (Tanzania) and Niassa National Reserve (Mozambique) making an area of 154000 km 2 of natural miombo woodlands ecosystem. The TFCA consist a network of PAs of various categories of protection; an area of 110,000 km 2 of this ecosystem is presently under conservation (Baldus and Hahn, 2009). The corridor connecting these two PAs to form TFCA is unprotected ecosystem. However, areas adjacent to TFCA PAs formulated WMAs (wildlife management areas) so as to involve community in conservation of wildlife outside PAs. Though, the effects of climate change and variability suggests that, WMAs is not enough strategy as species use the corridor for migration and others adapted in the corridor due to its suitability for their climatic niche. Therefore, the increasing concerns over the impacts of climate change necessitate the inclusion of new PAs categories to increase connectivity between PAs through wildlife/biodiversity/habitat corridors. This study intended to forecast amount of biomass loss, carbon released to the atmosphere, and conservation profit to be disposed as a result of habitat conversion of eastern corridor of Selous-Niassa TFCA from 2015 to 2035

Objectives 1.3.1 Main objective
The main objective of this study was to predict amount of biomass and carbon released to the atmosphere as a result of habitat conversion of eastern corridor of Selous-Niassa TFCA

Methods
Prediction of land use and land cover change of eastern corridor of Selous -Niassa TFCA from 2015 to 2035 using Markov Chain Analysis and Cellular Automata Analysis, jointly called CA-Markov was employed as shown in Figure 2 and Table 1.  (i) AGB (tonnes/ha) = Tree stem volume (m 3 /ha) * wood density/1000; and (ii) BGB (tonnes/ha) = AGB * 0.25 (as default), or root to shoot ratios. URT (2015) uses conversion factors into programmed NAFORMA analysis system by tree species or species groups to provide standards in each terrestrial ecosystem of Tanzania as shown in Table 3.   (Table 4) is relatively low since most dead wood in accessible areas is collected as fuelwood. As woodlands are generally more accessible than forests, collection of deadwood for fuelwood from these areas is easier. The relatively high volume of dead wood in water is assumed to be because dead trees lying in areas with water / wetlands are difficult to access and decay slowly and because they are wet and therefore unattractive for fuelwood.

To predict amount of conservation profit disposed as a result of habitat conversion of eastern corridor of Selous-Niassa TFCA from 2015 to 2035
The study adopted from Jenkins (2014)

III. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 3.1 Amount of biomass that will be loss in eastern corridor of Selous-Niassa TFCA from 2015 to 2035
The results in Table 7 and Table 8 revealed that, 124.5% of biomass will be loss in woodland, bushland and water; while, 24.5% of biomass will be stored by other vegetation type as a result of habitat conversion of eastern corridor of Selous-Niassa TFCA . Bushland alone will loss 67.7% of biomass, followed by woodlands (56.7%). This implies that, average amount of 36801.95 tons of biomass (above ground + below ground + deadwood) from woodlands; bushland; and water will be loss annually from 2015 to 2035. Moreover, average amount of 7242.19 tons of biomass (above ground + below ground + deadwood) from other vegetation type will be stored annually from 2015 to 2035. The results shows that, the natural vegetation will be degraded and new tree species will take (under succession) place. The degradation will impacts negatively ecosystem services offered to wildlife residing or using the area for migration or adapting to climatic change. The degraded area will be converted to bushland, cultivated land and built up area due to increase of human population, livestock, and dependence of corridor dwellers on existing natural resources in the ecosystem for their livelihoods. Thereof, the average total annual loss will be 29559.76 tons of biomass (above ground + below ground + deadwood) in all vegetation type from 2015 to 2035. These results necessitated the emergence of new management strategies of the area which will assure the survival of wildlife without compromising livelihoods of corridor dwellers. The existing formulation of wildlife management areas (WMAs) of Liwale (MAGINGO), Nachingwea (NDONDA) and Nanyumbu (MCHIMALU) districts relies only adjacently to core PAs of Selous, Msanjesi and Lukwika-Lumesule game reserves, and forgetting other areas which are crucial to wildlife, using their living habitat and migration trails.

Amount of Carbon released to the atmosphere as a result of habitat conversion of eastern corridor of Selous-Niassa TFCA from 2015 to 2035
The results in Table 9 and Table 10 revealed that, 122.29% of carbon will released to the atmosphere from in woodland, bushland and water; while, 22.9% of carbon will be stored by other vegetation type as a result of habitat conversion of eastern corridor of Selous-Niassa TFCA. Bushland alone will loss 64.1% (516491.6 tons) of carbon, followed by woodlands 57.89% (465675.9 tons). This implies that, average amount of 49181.91tons of carbon (above ground + below ground + deadwood) from woodlands; bushland; and water will be loss annually from 2015 to 2035. Moreover, average amount of 8964.75 tons of carbons (above ground + below ground + deadwood) from other vegetation type will be stored annually from 2015 to 2035. This is something that we can never stay quiet; and the need to act urgently is unquestionable. Thus, the need for sustainable utilization and management of natural resources in the area is vital. Nevertheless, the average total annual loss will be 40217.16 tons of Carbon (above ground + below ground + deadwood) from 2015 to 2035. Since, climate change is a result of increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, there are must be strategies to reverse the situation. If, we decide to include the area into core PA network, we must revise the current participatory management strategies which insist on formulation of Wildlife Management Areas (WMAs) but forgetting that those WMAs are only adjacent to core PAs which in other scenarios doesn't fit. Thus, the need to formulate other management strategies that will include all areas in the corridor which has wildlife climatic niche; economical and ecological importance for corridor dwellers is unavoidable.  Table 11 revealed that, eastern corridor of Selous -Niassa TFCA will loss an average amount of US$ 160868.6 of carbon trade annually from 2015 to 2035 due to habitat conversion of the area. Woodlands, bushland and water pioneered degradation on which they will loss an annual average of US$ 196727.6 from 2015 to 2035. It seems that the area have potential hard wood species which are regarded as commercial rewarding but environmental destructive by corridor dwellers. Sustainable utilization of natural resources in the area is of important priority. Thus, we need to integrate community in management of the area by combined PFM (Participatory Forest Management), JFM (Joint Forest Management) and WMA (Wildlife Management Areas) and having one entity which will be integral and community-centered in decision making on corridor management.

IV. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
This study predicted amount of biomass loss and carbon released to the atmosphere as a result of habitat conversion of eastern corridor of Selous -Niassa TFCA from 2015 to 2035. The findings have revealed that, the study area will undergo notable biomass loss of 591195.1 tons due to socio-economic activities performed by corridor dwellers. Also amount of carbon released to the atmosphere of 804343.1 tons can contribute much to climate change and climate variability. The amount of conservation profit disposed of annual average of USD 160868.6 seems to offset amount of benefit received by corridor dwellers from their destructive activities if adopted REDD+ strategies. The scenario necessitates formulation of sustainable management strategies that will emphasis on species adaptability in the corridor ecosystem in regard to their climatic niche without compromising livelihoods of corridor dwellers.
Furthermore, adequately adapting conservation policies to climate change requires a paradigm shift. Specifically, planners need to adopt a long-term view and accept that under budgetary constraints the release of PAs areas that become redundant at some point in time might be required if new conservation areas (wildlife corridors) are to be designated to meet conservation targets.