Ring-like Expansion of Heat Islands and Fragmentation of Cold Islands: Remote Sensing-Based Monitoring and Driving Mechanisms of Thermal Environment Evolution in Wuhan

DOI: 10.22161/ijeab.115.21

Abstract:
The urban heat island (UHI) effect is a typical eco-environmental problem during urbanization, significantly affecting urban ecosystems and residents’ quality of life. Using Wuhan City as the study area, we employed Landsat images from 2013, 2018, and 2024, along with multi-source data including DEM, population density, and land use types. Land surface temperature (LST) was retrieved using the mono-window algorithm. By combining the mean–standard deviation classification method with the geographical detector model, we systematically analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of the UHI effect. The results show that: (1) From 2013 to 2024, the proportion of heat islands in Wuhan increased from 43.98% to 54.17%, while the proportion of cold islands decreased from 24.81% to 19.96%. Heat islands expanded outward in a concentric pattern with continuously increasing intensity, whereas cold islands shrank globally and their fragmentation intensified. (2) The spatial pattern exhibited a stable dual-circle structure of “strong heat islands in the center—shrinking cold islands in the periphery.” The Yangtze River and Han River acted as natural “cold corridors,” serving as spatial barriers that segmented heat islands. (3) The geographical detector revealed that NDBI and NDVI were the long-term dominant independent driving factors, and their interaction yielded the highest explanatory power (q = 0.771). The superimposed effect of construction land expansion and vegetation degradation constituted the core mechanism of heat island formation. All factor interactions exhibited a two-factor enhancement effect, and the driving intensity dominated by human activities displayed a dynamic fluctuation pattern: high in 2013, decline in 2018, and rebound in 2024, corresponding to different stages of urban development. (4) The risk detector indicated that NDBI, population density, and land surface temperature were significantly and positively correlated with heat island intensity, while NDVI and elevation were significantly negatively correlated. The warming effect of positive factors was stronger in high-risk areas. This study provides a quantitative scientific basis for optimizing the thermal environment and guiding ecological regulation in Wuhan.

Keywords:
Heat Island Effect (UIE), Land Surface Temperature (LST) Inversion, RS and GIS, GeoDetector, Wuhan City

Article Info:
Received: 18 Sep 2026; Received in revised form: 16 Oct 2026; Accepted: 22 Oct 2026; Available online: 28 Oct 2026

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